Sunflower and soybean production is expected to increase in Ukraine

According to the updated forecast of analysts of IA “APK-Inform”, in 2023 the cultivated area under oil crops in Ukraine may increase to 8.28 million hectares, which will be 3% higher than the previous year. At the same time, the share of the harvesting area of oilseeds may increase to 98-99% against 95% in 2022.

The increase in the area of sowing in 2023 will mainly be due to the reduction of the area under grain in Ukraine as a whole, and will also happen due to the territories released in 2022 and will apply, as a rule, to sunflower and soybeans.

Thus, in 2023, the potential of sunflower production may increase due to the expansion of the sown area to 5.3-5.4 million hectares (+8-9% compared to the indicator of 2022). At the same time, a significant influencing factor will be the intensity and speed of demining of the de-occupied territories, in particular the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.

The yield of sunflower may also increase compared to the previous year, despite the possible reduction of fertilizers, pesticides, etc., because last year the sowing dates were significantly postponed due to the war, difficulties with the delivery of seed material and rather cool weather conditions.

Thus, analysts forecast, sunflower production may increase to 12.3 million tons (+12%) in 2023, but will depend on the further development of military operations, weather conditions, and supply of seed material.

Another oil crop, the production of which may increase in 2023, is soy. According to the preliminary forecast of analysts of IA “APK-Inform”, the area sown under this crop is expected to expand to 1.6-1.7 million hectares (+7% by 2022), which will be due to the high liquidity of the crop, as well as less dependence on import of seeds in comparison with other oilseeds.

At the same time, rapeseed production in 2023 may decrease compared to the previous year, but not significantly. According to preliminary estimates, the area sown under this crop may amount to about 1.2 million hectares, which is 18% lower than the figure of the previous year. But, taking into account the significant loss of rapeseed acreage in Ukraine in the spring of 2022 as a result of hostilities, the collection area in the year may decrease by only 1% compared to the 2022 figure.